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Earthquake hazard analysis for East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

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  • Erdem Bayrak
  • Şeyda Yılmaz
  • Mustafa Softa
  • Tuğba Türker
  • Yusuf Bayrak

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the earthquake hazard of the East Anatolian Fault Zone by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, the East Anatolian Fault Zone is divided into five different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. We calculated the b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥M during a time span of t years. We then produced a and b value maps using the ML. We obtained the lowest b value in Region 1 covered Karlıova triple junction. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (90 %) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (43 years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated, and we determined the highest value around Karlıova triple junction. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Karlıova triple junction and is the most dangerous area around the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem Bayrak & Şeyda Yılmaz & Mustafa Softa & Tuğba Türker & Yusuf Bayrak, 2015. "Earthquake hazard analysis for East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1063-1077, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:2:p:1063-1077
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1541-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yusuf Bayrak & Ahmet Yilmaztürk & Serkan Öztürk, 2005. "Relationships Between Fundamental Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Different Source Regions in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(3), pages 445-462, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Akgul & Anil Orhan Akay & Murat Ozocak & Abdullah İlker Esin & Necmettin Şenturk, 2022. "A new approach to spatial risk analysis in the long-term (1950–2020) assessment of natural disasters (avalanche, landslide, rockfall, flood) in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3471-3508, December.
    2. Caglar Ozer, 2021. "4-D tomographic change of Vp and Vp/Vs structure before destructive earthquakes: a case study of the Sivrice-Elazığ earthquake (mw = 6.8), Eastern Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1901-1917, September.

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