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Statistically downscaled climate change projections of surface temperature over Northern Italy for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099

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  • R. Tomozeiu
  • G. Agrillo
  • C. Cacciamani
  • V. Pavan

Abstract

Future changes of seasonal minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy are assessed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099 against 1961–1990. A statistical downscaling technique, applied to the ENSEMBLES-Stream1 and CIRCE global simulations (A1B scenario), is used to reach this objective. The statistical scheme consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. The set-up of the statistical scheme is done using large-scale fields (predictors) derived from ERA40 reanalysis and seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperature (predictands) derived from observational data at around 75 stations, distributed over Northern Italy, over the period 1960–2002. A similar technique is also applied to the number of frost days and ice days at a reduced number of stations in order to construct projections on change of the selected extreme temperature indices for the two future periods. The evaluation of future projections for these extreme indices is relevant due to its impacts on transports, health, and agriculture. The downscaling scheme constructed using observed data is then applied to large-scale fields simulated by global models (A1B scenario), in order to construct scenarios on future change of seasonal temperature, mean and extreme indices, at local scale. The significance of changes is tested from the statistical point of view. The results show that significant increases could be expected to occur under scenario conditions in both minimum and maximum temperature, associated with a decrease in the number of frost and ice days in both periods and more intense to the end of the century. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • R. Tomozeiu & G. Agrillo & C. Cacciamani & V. Pavan, 2014. "Statistically downscaled climate change projections of surface temperature over Northern Italy for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 143-168, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:72:y:2014:i:1:p:143-168
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0552-y
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    2. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.
    3. Straffelini, Eugenio & Tarolli, Paolo, 2023. "Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

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