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Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

Author

Listed:
  • E. Shamir
  • K. Georgakakos
  • C. Spencer
  • T. Modrick
  • M. Murphy
  • R. Jubach

Abstract

The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km 2 ) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • E. Shamir & K. Georgakakos & C. Spencer & T. Modrick & M. Murphy & R. Jubach, 2013. "Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 459-482, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:459-482
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0573-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marianna Rodrigues Gullo Cavalcante & Priscila Luz Barcellos & Marcio Cataldi, 2020. "Flash flood in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil) in 2011: part I—calibration watershed through hydrological SMAP model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1117-1134, July.
    2. Fang Jing & Li-Zhuang Yang & Ya-Li Peng & Ying Wang & Xiaochu Zhang & Da-Ren Zhang, 2017. "Enhancing the effectiveness of flood road gauges with color coding," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 55-70, August.

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