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Learning from the past: statistical performance measures for avalanche warning services

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  • Christoph Rheinberger

Abstract

Avalanche warning services (AWS) are operated to protect communities and traffic lines in avalanche-prone regions of the Alps and other mountain ranges. In times of high avalanche danger, these services may decide to close roads or to evacuate settlements. Closing decisions are based on field observations, avalanche release statistics, and snow forecasts issued by weather services. Because of the spatial variability in the snowpack and the insufficient understanding of avalanche triggering mechanisms, closing decisions are characterized by large uncertainties and the information based on which AWS have to decide is always incomplete. In this paper, we illustrate how signal detection theory can be applied to make better use of the information at hand. The proposed framework allows the evaluation of past road closures and points to how the decision performance of AWS could be improved. To illustrate the proposed framework, we evaluate the decision performance of two AWS in Switzerland and discuss the advantages of such a formalized decision-making approach. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Christoph Rheinberger, 2013. "Learning from the past: statistical performance measures for avalanche warning services," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1519-1533, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1519-1533
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0423-y
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    1. Blattenberger, Gail & Fowles, Richard, 1995. "Road closure to mitigate avalanche danger: a case study for Little Cottonwood Canyon," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 159-174, March.
    2. Santiago Beguería, 2006. "Validation and Evaluation of Predictive Models in Hazard Assessment and Risk Management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 37(3), pages 315-329, March.
    3. Christoph Rheinberger, 2011. "A Mixed Logit Approach to Study Preferences for Safety on Alpine Roads," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 121-146, May.
    4. Andrea Leiter & Gerald Pruckner, 2009. "Proportionality of Willingness to Pay to Small Changes in Risk: The Impact of Attitudinal Factors in Scope Tests," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(2), pages 169-186, February.
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    1. Sättele, Martina & Bründl, Michael & Straub, Daniel, 2015. "Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 192-202.

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