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Climate change impacts on extreme floods II: improving flood future peaks simulation using non-stationary frequency analysis

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  • Ousmane Seidou
  • Andrea Ramsay
  • Ioan Nistor

Abstract

In the companion paper, Seidou et al. ( 2011 , submitted) have shown that when adequate meteorological data are available to calibrate rainfall-runoff models, using a non-stationary GEV model with the simulated flows can provide a better description of flood peaks distributions than directly using the simulated peaks. Their methodology is extended in this paper to improve future flood peaks simulation under a changing climate. In this case, the rainfall-runoff model is forced with the downscaled outputs of the Canadian General Circulation Model CGCM3. Special attention is paid to the statistical downscaling of precipitations, as the choice of the transfer function has a significant influence on the performance of non-stationary GEV model. Stepwise regression was initially used to describe precipitation occurrence and intensity, but the patterns of the simulated hydrographs were found to be unsatisfactory. After precipitation occurrence model was successfully replaced with an ensemble of regression trees, the non-stationary GEV model was shown to provide a better description of flood peaks in the observation period. The non-stationary GEV model shows that exceedance probabilities on the Kemptville Creek will gradually rise up to 34% above current levels in 2100 for a 20-year service life. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Ousmane Seidou & Andrea Ramsay & Ioan Nistor, 2012. "Climate change impacts on extreme floods II: improving flood future peaks simulation using non-stationary frequency analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 715-726, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:715-726
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0047-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Balqis M. Rehan, 2018. "An innovative micro-scale approach for vulnerability and flood risk assessment with the application to property-level protection adoptions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1039-1057, April.
    2. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
    3. Dong-dong Zhang & Deng-hua Yan & Yi-Cheng Wang & Fan Lu & Shao-hua Liu, 2015. "GAMLSS-based nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1037-1053, June.

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