Research on prediction of debris flows triggered in channels

The accurate prediction of debris flows occurrence that will allow the reduction or prevention of economic losses and human casualties is presently the most difficult aspect of debris flows studies but also the aspect that receives most attention. Most prediction methods are based on rainfall as the basic parameter, with the moment of occurrence as only result, and without a prediction of debris flow travel time and size. This paper takes Jiangjia Gully in Dongchuan of Yunnan Province as an example, and considers, on the basis of the fulfillment of the essential condition: the abundant availability of loose materials, the conditions for the formation of debris flows. Based on the mechanism of the initiation of debris flows in channels and the volume of rainfall in the basin, this paper also gives a systematic analysis on the travel time and size of the debris flow and suggests that the hydrological condition for forming debris flow is the unit discharge of the flood ≥0.35 m 3 /s.m. It uses the 10-min rainfall intensity to calculate both the run-off of the rainfall and the unit discharge caused by the run-off, thus predicting the occurrence of debris flows. The velocity and the travel time of a debris flow can also be determined using the unit discharge of the run-off. The total volume of debris flows can be calculated using the 10-min intensity of rainfall and the total volume of the run-off, together with the volume concentration of the sediment in a debris flow. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011