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Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany

Author

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  • Patrick Heneka
  • Thomas Hofherr

Abstract

Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Heneka & Thomas Hofherr, 2011. "Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 815-831, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:56:y:2011:i:3:p:815-831
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9593-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Heidi Kreibich & Philip Bubeck & Michael Kunz & Holger Mahlke & Stefano Parolai & Bijan Khazai & James Daniell & Tobia Lakes & Kai Schröter, 2014. "A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2279-2304, December.

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