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Determination of failure probabilities of flood defence systems with improved dynamic bounds method

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  • Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad
  • Zeki Demirbilek
  • Tewfik Mahdi

Abstract

In this paper, we describe the computational framework of a novel method for solving the challenging problem of probabilistic finite elements. The method is called Improved Dynamic Bounds (IDB) and was developed recently to improve the efficiency of the dynamic bounds. The IDB is used in finite element numerical models to calculate time-dependent failure analyses of structures. In applications, the IDB can speed up the overall simulation process by several orders of magnitude. In applications controlled by two influential variables (e.g, two-dimensional problem), the computational efficiency is improved by a factor of 769 according to Rajabalinejad ( 2009 ). Applications of IDB indicate the method is most efficient for problems where the number of influential variables are limited. This is often the case for geotechnical and coastal flood defence systems. The IDB method is applied in this paper to the 17th Street Flood Wall, a component of the flood defence system (levee infra-structure) that failed during the Hurricane Katrina, to calculate the failure probability of an I-wall. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad & Zeki Demirbilek & Tewfik Mahdi, 2010. "Determination of failure probabilities of flood defence systems with improved dynamic bounds method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(1), pages 95-109, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:55:y:2010:i:1:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9561-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajabalinejad, M., 2010. "Bayesian Monte Carlo method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(10), pages 1050-1060.
    2. Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad & Tew-Fik Mahdi, 2010. "The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(1), pages 29-49, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajabalinejad, M., 2010. "Bayesian Monte Carlo method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(10), pages 1050-1060.
    2. Rajabalinejad, M. & Meester, L.E. & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. & Vrijling, J.K., 2011. "Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 278-285.
    3. ShiYang Tang & XueMing Shu & ShiFei Shen & ZhangHua Li & SiYang Cao, 2017. "Study of portable infrastructure-free cell phone detector for disaster relief," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 453-464, March.

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