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A Study on the Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal With NCAR/PSU Mesoscale Model

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  • M. Mandal
  • U. Mohanty
  • S. Raman

Abstract

Prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The chief objective of this study is to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, two severe cyclonic storms are simulated with two PBL and four convection schemes using non-hydrostatic version of MM5 modeling system. Several important model simulated fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and precipitation are compared with the corresponding verification analysis/observation. The track of the cyclones in the simulation and analysis are compared with the best-fit track provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The Hong-Pan PBL scheme (as implemented in NCAR Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model) in combination with Grell (or Betts-Miller) cumulus convection scheme is found to perform better than the other combinations of schemes used in this study. Though it is expected that radiative processes may not have pronounced effect in short-range forecasts, an attempt is made to calibrate the model with respect to the two radiation parameterization schemes used in the study. And the results indicate that radiation parameterization has noticeable impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • M. Mandal & U. Mohanty & S. Raman, 2004. "A Study on the Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal With NCAR/PSU Mesoscale Model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(2), pages 391-414, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:391-414
    DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000023359.24526.24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krishna Osuri & U. Mohanty & A. Routray & Makarand Kulkarni & M. Mohapatra, 2012. "Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1359, September.
    2. S. Fadnavis & Medha Deshpande & Sachin Ghude & P. Ernest Raj, 2014. "Simulation of severe thunder storm event: a case study over Pune, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 927-943, June.
    3. Jayaraman Potty & S. Oo & P. Raju & U. Mohanty, 2012. "Performance of nested WRF model in typhoon simulations over West Pacific and South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1451-1470, September.
    4. Funing Li & Jinbao Song & Xia Li, 2018. "A preliminary evaluation of the necessity of using a cumulus parameterization scheme in high-resolution simulations of Typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 647-671, June.
    5. Kelin Hu & Qin Chen & Sytske Kimball, 2012. "Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1029-1050, April.
    6. M. Mandal & U. Mohanty & P. Sinha & M. Ali, 2007. "Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 413-427, June.

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