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A New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone

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  • P. Mäntyniemi
  • V. Mârza
  • A. Kijko
  • P. Retief

Abstract

In this paper we apply a probabilistic methodology to map specific seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone, which represents the uttermost earthquake danger to Romania as well as its surroundings. The procedure is especially suitable for the estimation of seismic hazard at an individual site, and seismic hazard maps can be created by applying it repeatedly to grid points covering larger areas. It allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incompletely reported historical and complete instrumental parts. When applying themethodology, special attention was given to the effect of hypocentral depth and the variation of attenuation according to azimuth. Hazard maps specifying a 10% chance of exceedance of the given peak ground acceleration value for an exposure time of 50 years were prepared for three different characteristic depths of earthquakes in the Vrancea area. These maps represent a new realistic contribution to the mitigation of the earthquake risk caused by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone in terms of: (1) input data (consistent, reliable, and the most complete earthquake catalogue), (2) appropriate and specific attenuation relationships (considering both azimuthal and depth effects); and (3) a new and versatile methodology. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • P. Mäntyniemi & V. Mârza & A. Kijko & P. Retief, 2003. "A New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(3), pages 371-385, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:29:y:2003:i:3:p:371-385
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1024787621646
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivia Bazacliu & Mircea Radulian, 1999. "Seismicity Variations in Depth and Time in the Vrancea (Romania) Subcrustal Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 19(2), pages 165-177, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alik Ismail-Zadeh & Vladimir Sokolov & Klaus-Peter Bonjer, 2007. "Tectonic stress, seismicity, and seismic hazard in the southeastern Carpathians," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(3), pages 493-514, September.
    2. Somayeh Kalaneh & Maryam Agh-Atabai, 2016. "Spatial variation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Zagros fold and thrust belt, SW Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 933-946, June.

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