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Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness

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  • Mohammed Dore

Abstract

A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period'' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Dore, 2003. "Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 249-269, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:249-269
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1022978024522
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Fortunato & Helmut Herwartz & Ramón E. López & Eugenio Figueroa B., 2022. "Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration and hydrometeorological disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 57-74, May.
    2. David Etkin & Ingrid Stefanovic, 2005. "Mitigating Natural Disasters: The Role Of Eco-Ethics," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 467-490, July.
    3. M. Godsoe & M. Ladd & R. Cox, 2019. "Assessing Canada’s disaster baselines and projections under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: a modeling tool to track progress," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 293-317, August.
    4. Brian Mills & Dan Unrau & Carla Parkinson & Brenda Jones & Jennifer Yessis & Kelsey Spring & Laurel Pentelow, 2008. "Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 157-183, November.
    5. Valeriah Hwacha, 2005. "Canada'S Experience In Developing A National Disaster Mitigation Strategy: A Deliberative Dialogue Approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 507-523, July.
    6. Samanthi Durage & S. Wirasinghe & Janaka Ruwanpura, 2013. "Comparison of the Canadian and US tornado detection and warning systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(1), pages 117-137, March.
    7. G. McBean, 2005. "Risk Mitigation Strategies for Tornadoes in the Context of Climate Change and Development," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 357-366, July.
    8. Altay, Nezih & Narayanan, Arunachalam, 2022. "Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1234-1244.

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