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Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

Author

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  • G. Crisci
  • S. Di Gregorio
  • R. Rongo
  • W. Spataro
  • F. Nicoletta

Abstract

The model SCIARA, based on the “Cellular Automata” paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows. The possible fields of intervention are: [(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk; [(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution; [(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation. A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption. The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • G. Crisci & S. Di Gregorio & R. Rongo & W. Spataro & F. Nicoletta, 1999. "Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 20(2), pages 215-229, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:20:y:1999:i:2:p:215-229
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008165803095
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Serena H. & Jakeman, Anthony J. & Norton, John P., 2008. "Artificial Intelligence techniques: An introduction to their use for modelling environmental systems," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 379-400.
    2. Andrew Harris & Massimiliano Favalli & Robert Wright & Harold Garbeil, 2011. "Hazard assessment at Mount Etna using a hybrid lava flow inundation model and satellite-based land classification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1001-1027, September.
    3. I. Georgoudas & G. Sirakoulis & E. Scordilis & I. Andreadis, 2009. "On-chip earthquake simulation model using potentials," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 519-537, September.

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