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Comprehensive analysis of hydrological and glacial dynamics in the Himalayas: addressing glacial lake outburst flood risks in hydropower development

Author

Listed:
  • Isly Issac

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

  • N. K. Goel

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
    Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

  • Wolfgang Schwanghart

    (University of Potsdam)

  • Manohar Arora

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

Abstract

In the Indian Himalayas, the rapid development of hydroelectric projects leverages perennial water sources but raises concerns regarding the safety of these installations in the face of climate change. This study investigates the Bajoli-Holi Hydroelectric Project on the River Ravi, focusing on the potential impacts of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) alongside inflow design floods on spillway capacity. Given the high likelihood of breaching in moraine-dammed lakes near glacier snouts, our analysis employs advanced hydrodynamic modelling and hydro-meteorological assessments to evaluate the combined flood risks. Utilizing Arc-GIS for catchment delineation and the MIKE 11 model for sensitivity analysis, we emphasize the need for integrated flood risk management strategies in the design phase of hydropower projects. The findings in the study area of Bajoli-Holi dam highlight the critical importance of accounting for GLOFs in spillway capacity assessments in addition to the inflow design flood, to enhance the hydrological security of these essential energy infrastructures.

Suggested Citation

  • Isly Issac & N. K. Goel & Wolfgang Schwanghart & Manohar Arora, 2025. "Comprehensive analysis of hydrological and glacial dynamics in the Himalayas: addressing glacial lake outburst flood risks in hydropower development," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(5), pages 5571-5588, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07042-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07042-w
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