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Developing hillslope hydrology based probabilistic rainfall threshold for shallow landslides

Author

Listed:
  • Suvam Das

    (CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
    Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR))

  • Koushik Pandit

    (CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
    Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR))

  • Debi Prasanna Kanungo

    (CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
    Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR))

  • Shantanu Sarkar

    (Uttarakhand Landslide Mitigation & Management Center)

Abstract

Developing rainfall thresholds is crucial for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. Typically, such thresholds are established by correlating past landslide events with corresponding rainfall records. However, this process particularly becomes challenging in regions with limited data. To address this issue, a methodology is designed in this study, which combines both transient seepage and stability analysis, followed by threshold development. This method first identifies the cumulative rainfall (E) and rainfall duration (D) parameters for the critical stability condition (i.e., Factor of Safety ≤ 1). Subsequently, this information is used to derive the E–D threshold line using the frequentist probabilistic approach. The methodology is applied to six shallow landslides located along the National Highway–10 in the Kalimpong region of Darjeeling Himalaya, India. At a 5% exceedance probability (T5), the threshold is estimated as T5 = 26.92D0.44 for a duration range of 1

Suggested Citation

  • Suvam Das & Koushik Pandit & Debi Prasanna Kanungo & Shantanu Sarkar, 2025. "Developing hillslope hydrology based probabilistic rainfall threshold for shallow landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(5), pages 5363-5385, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07018-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07018-w
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