Analytic network process–based study of the importance and interconnectivity of facilities under volcanic ash risk

In the event of a major volcanic eruption in the Korean Peninsula and other neighboring countries, there is a potential for widespread damage due to volcanic ash fallout, affecting various sectors across the country. Our study focuses on analyzing the importance and interconnectedness of different areas to develop effective volcanic ash risk assessment techniques and damage mitigation measures. We classified the areas susceptible to volcanic ash damage and analyzed the risks and interconnections of each sector using the analytic network process (ANP). We categorized the damage caused by volcanic ash into three major groups—human, facility, and industrial damage. Through a preliminary review, we identified 21 influence relationships among sectors affected by volcanic ash, which were incorporated into the ANP analysis. We designed an analytical network structure model to reflect the classification and correlation of damage areas, along with constructing a network syntax. Expert surveys were conducted to analyze importance and correlation using the SuperDecisions software. Transportation facilities, such as aviation, ships and ports, and infrastructure facilities, including electricity, broadcasting and telecommunications, were identified as high-risk areas. Hence, prioritizing these sectors in the development of volcanic ash risk assessment and mitigation technologies is crucial. In terms of interconnectivity, the electricity sector exhibited a ripple effect on all other areas. Medical facilities were particularly susceptible to influences from damage to roads, water supply, and electricity. The identification of volcanic ash risk facility sectors in this study is expected to contribute to establishing a comprehensive mid-to-long term strategy for volcano disaster prevention.