Electricity supply research for ensuring food security in North China during droughts and floods: copula modeling for the water-energy-food nexus

Droughts and floods pose significant threats to rain-fed agriculture in North China. Ensuring adequate electricity supply during disasters can safeguard food production security and promote sustainable agricultural development. This study proposed a conceptual framework for assessing the water-energy-food nexus from a disaster perspective. Taking 58 cities in North China as a case study, we initially analyzed the correlation among water balance conditions, rural electricity consumption, and food output using a linear approach, which serves to assess the suitability of Copula modeling. Subsequently, the three variables were modeled using five multidimensional Copula functions to deeply explore the intricate correlation structure among them. Finally, using the Copula model and conditional probability analysis, we determined the minimum rural electricity consumption necessary to secure food production security during droughts and floods. The results show that to ensure food production security during drought years, an annual minimum rural electricity consumption of 2100 kWh/person was required in Shandong, 1800 kWh/person in Henan, 2100 kWh/person in Hebei, 900 kWh/person in Shanxi, 1950 kWh/person in Beijing, and 1950 kWh/person in Tianjin. Similarly, to ensure food production security during flood years, an annual minimum of 2700 kWh/person of rural electricity consumption was guaranteed in Shandong, 2100 kWh/person in Henan, 2850 kWh/person in Hebei, 2100 kWh/person in Shanxi, 2250 kWh/person in Beijing, and 3000 kWh/person in Tianjin. The findings of the study can provide decision support for food security work in North China.