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Statistical analysis of thundersnow events and ERA5-based convective environments across Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Veli Yavuz

    (University of Samsun)

  • Elif Lal Soysal

    (University of Samsun)

  • Yiğitalp Kara

    (University of Samsun
    Istanbul Technical University)

Abstract

In this study, a long-term analysis of thundersnow (Thunderstorm with Snow - TSSN) events was conducted for the first time across Türkiye (2001–2023), and the convective environment during TSSN occurrences was analyzed. Over the 23-year period, a total of 68 unique TSSN events were observed at 19 airports, with the majority (68%) occurring at the three airports located in Istanbul. No annual trend was detected for the TSSN; however, on a monthly basis, the highest number of occurrences were in January, February and March, with higher frequencies occurring between 0300 UTC and 1500 UTC. The durations of TSSN events were mostly (55%) less than 1 h, with the longest event (5.5 h) observed at Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen Airport. When examining the convective environment of TSSN events, convective available potential energy (CAPE) values were lower than those of summer thunderstorms (maximum of 144 J/kg). Thermodynamic indices (Lifted Index, K Index, Total Total Index, Showalter Index, SWEAT Index) did not indicate sufficient atmospheric instability for TSSN. Parameters such as the level of free convection (LFC), lifting condensation level (LCL), equilibrium level (EL), and mixing ratio (MIXR) were found to best characterize the convective environment of the TSSN, which is dominated by more limited slantwise convection rather than deep vertical convection. Across the 68 TSSN events, lower atmospheric level lapse rate values (lapse rate 0–3 km, LR03; 2–4 km, LR24) were lower than those of summer thunderstorms, and bulk shear (0–6 km, BS06; to the EL level, BSEF) values exhibited similar behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Veli Yavuz & Elif Lal Soysal & Yiğitalp Kara, 2025. "Statistical analysis of thundersnow events and ERA5-based convective environments across Türkiye," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 3293-3312, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06929-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06929-y
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