Deformed archaeological remains at Lilybaeum in Western Sicily (southern Italy): possible ground signatures of a missed large earthquake

Archaeoseismic analysis performed in Western Sicily points to deformed archeological remains at Lilybaeum, a Punic coastal city founded in 397 B.C. at the Island’s westernmost edge. Starting from the direct observation of deformed ruins, an interdisciplinary work strategy, which included field-structural analysis, drone-shot high-resolution aerial photogrammetry, and geophysical prospecting, was employed to investigate whether the identified deformations may represent the ground effects of a previously unknown large earthquake in the area. Among the unearthed remains, some mosaics and a stone-paved monumental avenue show evidence of tectonic deformation, being fractured, folded, and uplifted. The trend of folding and fracturing is consistent with the NNW–SSE oriented tectonic max stress axis to which Western Sicily is currently subjected. Displacement along a fracture deforming the Decumanus Maximus together with the finding of a domino-type directional collapse, enable us to interpret the observed deformation as the ground signature of a coseismic slip. The seismic rupture occurred along a previously unmapped deformation front that fits well within the seismotectonic context of Western Sicily. Measured offset, geophysical prospecting, and age-constraints all suggest the possibility that a highly-energetic earthquake nucleated in the area following a coseismic rupture along a NE–SW trending back-verging reverse fault towards the end of the fourth century CE. Since seismic catalogs do not provide evidence of such a large earthquake, this event might represent a missed entry in the historical seismic record. This finding provides constraints to redefine the seismic hazard of Western Sicily, a region where recurrence-time intervals for large earthquakes are still unknown.