IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i3d10.1007_s11069-024-06913-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting strong subsequent events in the Italian territory: a national and regional application for NESTOREv1.0

Author

Listed:
  • P. Brondi

    (National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS)

  • S. Gentili

    (National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS)

  • R. Di Giovambattista

    (Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia)

Abstract

The Italian territory is one of the most seismically active areas in Europe, where Strong Subsequent Events (SSEs), in combination with the strong mainshock effects, can lead to the collapse of already weakened buildings and to further loss of lives. In the last few years, the machine learning-based algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was proposed and used to forecast clusters in which the mainshock is followed by a SSE of similar magnitude. Recently, a first new version of a MATLAB package based on this algorithm (NESTOREv1.0) has been developed and the code has been further improved. In our analysis, we considered a nationwide and a regional catalogue for Italy to study the seismicity recorded over the last 40 years in two areas covering most of the Italian territory and northeastern Italy, respectively. For both applications, we obtained statistical information about the clusters in terms of duration, productivity and release of seismic moment. We trained NESTOREv1.0 on the clusters occurring approximately in the first 30 years of catalogues and we evaluated its performance on the last 10 years. The results showed that 1 day after the mainshock occurrence the rate of correct SSE forecasting is larger than 85% in both areas, supporting the application of NESTOREv1.0 in the Italian territory. Furthermore, by training the software on the entire period available for the two catalogues, we obtained good results in terms of near-real-time class forecasting for clusters recorded from 2021 onward.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Brondi & S. Gentili & R. Di Giovambattista, 2025. "Forecasting strong subsequent events in the Italian territory: a national and regional application for NESTOREv1.0," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 3499-3531, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06913-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06913-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06913-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06913-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06913-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.