IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i2d10.1007_s11069-024-06880-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hydrological low flow and overlapped trend analysis for drought assessment in Western Black Sea Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Aydin

    (Kastamonu University)

  • Kasim Yenigun

    (Kastamonu University)

  • Oznur Isinkaralar

    (Kastamonu University)

  • Kaan Isinkaralar

    (Kastamonu University)

Abstract

Drought is a major disaster known for hundreds of years, but its impact has recently increased due to climate crisis, making it a common concern of the whole society worldwide. There is no clear definition of drought, as many disciplines evaluate it from different perspectives. Utilizing water and reducing the impact of drought are directly related issues. It is essential to determine our rivers’ future conditions, reveal the effects of possible changes on drought, and take the necessary precautions against them in advance to prevent possible economic and social crises. In this study, among the 126 flow observation stations whose records were kept in the Western Black Sea Region, 26 observation stations with suitable data between 1984 and 2020 were selected to evaluate the drought effect. The Mann–Kendall Rank Correlation test was used to determine the starting years of the detected trends. In order to detect trends, the Spearman’s Rho (SR) test, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Sen’s Trend Slope (TS) method, Şen’s Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) test, and, Mann–Kendall Order Correlation (MKOC) test. According to all analysis methods, decreasing trends were detected at stations D13A014, D1A032, and E13A036. In addition, MKOC test results showed the trend starting in 2001 was at D13A014, 1990 at D13A032, and 1990 at E13A036. However, no significant trend was detected in minimum flows at other stations. It would be appropriate to make such studies on the evaluation of water resources a country policy and to conduct studies on the direction and value of drought in the basin in the future using trend analysis or other methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Aydin & Kasim Yenigun & Oznur Isinkaralar & Kaan Isinkaralar, 2025. "Hydrological low flow and overlapped trend analysis for drought assessment in Western Black Sea Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1833-1863, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06880-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06880-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06880-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06880-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06880-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.