From perils to preparedness: Decoding coastal hazard risks on Kerala’s central coast through the IPCC framework

The coastal zones are one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, rich in resources, supporting livelihoods and driving economies. The thickly populated coastal stretches of Kerala are grappling with multiple threats in the form of coastal hazards such as sea level rise, high waves, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. To address these threats, a comprehensive multi-risk approach is adopted based on the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in which risk is conceived as a function of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The study assesses and map the risks associated with coastal hazards on the central coast of Kerala by developing a composite disaster risk index that integrates physical, and socioeconomic variables specific to the study area. Under the hazard component, indicators such as sea level rise, precipitation intensity, shoreline change rate, proximity to cyclone tracks, storm surge height, and frequency of sea surges are considered. Vulnerability indicators encompass population density and land use/land cover, while exposure indicators include elevation, slope, mean significant wave height, and drainage density. The risk assessment indicates varying levels of risk across the study area, with 2% coming under very high risk zone, 6% under high risk zone, 21% under medium risk zone, 43% under low risk, and 28% under very low risk. These findings help coastal planners and managers with effective disaster management and adaptation strategies.