IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v118y2023i3d10.1007_s11069-023-06087-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earthquake scenarios and population exposure for the city of Plovdiv

Author

Listed:
  • Dimcho Solakov

    (National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Stela Simeonova

    (National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Petya Trifonova

    (National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Metodi Metodiev

    (National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Plamena Raykova

    (National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Among natural disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economic effects on human life and the urban environment. Appropriate risk reduction strategies can be developed only with a better understanding of seismic hazards as well as the population and building growth rates in the corresponding region. In the present study, deterministic and probabilistic earthquake (seismic) ground-motion scenarios are developed and presented for one of the most earthquake-prone cities in Bulgaria, the city of Plovdiv. We apply a method for integrating the spatial distribution of seismic hazards with human exposure to assess hazard impacts. Earthquake scenarios and social vulnerability metrics are combined in a geographic information system (GIS) to identify the spatial vulnerability of the exposed population to seismic risk and the locations for targeting mitigation actions in areas with high exposure and vulnerability levels. The results of our study show that most of the territory of the city is classified at the highest seismic hazard level: PGA 0.2. High and major levels were estimated for the population exposure index (PEI) for nearly 60% of the residential buildings in the city (inhabited by approximately 96% of the Plovdiv population). The spatial distribution of the results is available in GIS format and can be used in scientific and practical applications to reduce the risk and consequences of possible strong earthquakes in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimcho Solakov & Stela Simeonova & Petya Trifonova & Metodi Metodiev & Plamena Raykova, 2023. "Earthquake scenarios and population exposure for the city of Plovdiv," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2153-2171, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:118:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06087-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06087-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06087-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-023-06087-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sreevalsa Kolathayar, 2021. "Recent seismicity in Delhi and population exposure to seismic hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2621-2648, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:118:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06087-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.