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Philosophical aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): a critical review

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  • Luca Zanetti

    (Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia)

  • Daniele Chiffi

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Lorenza Petrini

    (Politecnico di Milano)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to review and critically discuss the philosophical aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Given that estimates of seismic hazard are typically riddled with uncertainty, different epistemic values (related to the pursuit of scientific knowledge) compete in the selection of seismic hazard models, in a context influenced by non-epistemic values (related to practical goals and aims) as well. We first distinguish between the different types of uncertainty in PSHA. We claim that epistemic and non-epistemic considerations are closely related in the selection of the appropriate estimate of seismic hazard by the experts. Finally, we argue that the division of scientific responsibility among the experts can lead to responsibility gaps. This raises a problem for the ownership of the results (“no one’s model” problem) similar to the “problem of many hands” in the ethics of technology. We conclude with a plea for a close collaboration between philosophy and engineering.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Zanetti & Daniele Chiffi & Lorenza Petrini, 2023. "Philosophical aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): a critical review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1193-1212, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05901-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05901-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roxane Foulser‐Piggott & Gary Bowman & Martin Hughes, 2020. "A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 169-182, January.
    2. Robert J. Budnitz & George Apostolakis & David M. Boore & Lloyd S. Cluff & Kevin J. Coppersmith & C. Allin Cornell & Peter A. Morris, 1998. "Use of Technical Expert Panels: Applications to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 463-469, August.
    3. M. C. Marulanda & J. C. Llera & G. A. Bernal & O. D. Cardona, 2021. "Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of seismic risk resulting from multiple hazard models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 3203-3227, September.
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