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Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study—Blantyre, Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Giordano

    (University of Bristol)

  • Raffaele De Risi

    (University of Bristol)

  • John Macdonald

    (University of Bristol)

  • Katsuichiro Goda

    (Western University)

  • Innocent Kafodya

    (University of Malawi)

  • Ignasio Ngoma

    (University of Malawi)

Abstract

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation in many parts of Africa is a significant driver of earthquake risk. New constructions are usually built with no compliance with seismic codes, which results in a critical increase in the vulnerability of the building stock. To quantitatively assess the potential consequences of unregulated urbanisation, this study investigates the effect of building code enforcement and urban expansion on the future earthquake loss in the city of Blantyre, Malawi. The analysis, performed within a probabilistic loss assessment framework, estimates the net present value of 30-year aggregated seismic loss for different urban expansion rates and code enforcement scenarios. The results show that high urbanisation rates and lack of building regulations could lead to a threefold increase in average seismic losses in the next thirty years. On the contrary, effective code enforcement could cap the seismic loss increase at 13%, highlighting the financial gain from effective disaster risk reduction programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Giordano & Raffaele De Risi & John Macdonald & Katsuichiro Goda & Innocent Kafodya & Ignasio Ngoma, 2023. "Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study—Blantyre, Malawi," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1083-1104, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05895-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05895-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Hodge & Juliet Biggs & Katsuichiro Goda & Willy Aspinall, 2015. "Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1781-1806, April.
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