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Performance assessment of WRF model radiation schemes in simulating the track and intensity of the super cyclonic storm “Amphan”

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  • Kanak Lata Xalxo

    (Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to Be University)

  • Biranchi Kumar Mahala

    (Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to Be University)

  • Pratap Kumar Mohanty

    (Berhampur University)

  • Ashish Routray

    (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences)

  • Bhupati Bhusan Mishra

    (Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to Be University)

Abstract

A Super Cyclonic Storm “Amphan” crossed the West Bengal coast on 20 May 2020 and caused significant damage to property due to wind, associated rainfall, and surge. In the present study, we attempted to assess the performance of two longwave (LW) radiation schemes i.e., (a) Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM), (b) RRTM for General Circulation Models (RRTMG), two shortwave (SW) radiation schemes i.e., (a) Dudhia, (b) RRTMG available in the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (hereinafter, WRF) model in forecasting the track and intensity of “Amphan”. The experiments have been carried out using a single domain with a horizontal resolution of 12 km. The WRF experiments using two LW and two SW radiation schemes with different permutations as S11, S14, S41, S44 for “Amphan” have been evaluated by computing different error metrics. Simulated features include track, track error, translation speed and track length, maximum sustained surface wind, minimum central sea level pressure, rainfall, and horizontal distribution of latent heat flux, which were compared with IMD Best Track data. The study suggests that simulations with the S41 scheme compare well with observations in terms of track and the enhanced latent heat flux at its peak intensity levels. The analysis of vertically integrated moisture transport, flux divergence, and the satellite imageries on cloud coverage indicates that the scheme S11 (S14) simulates strong convection before (after) landfall process.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanak Lata Xalxo & Biranchi Kumar Mahala & Pratap Kumar Mohanty & Ashish Routray & Bhupati Bhusan Mishra, 2022. "Performance assessment of WRF model radiation schemes in simulating the track and intensity of the super cyclonic storm “Amphan”," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1741-1762, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05445-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05445-1
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    1. R. Chandrasekar & C. Balaji, 2016. "Impact of physics parameterization and 3DVAR data assimilation on prediction of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 223-247, January.
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