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Incorporating shear stiffness into post-fire debris flow statistical triggering models

Author

Listed:
  • R. E. S. Moss

    (California Polytechnic State University)

  • N. Lyman

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

Abstract

Commonly used post-fire debris flow statistical triggering models consider predictor variables that account for; rainfall intensity, rainfall accumulation, area burned, burned intensity, geology, slope, and others. These models represent the physical process of debris flow initiation and subsequent failure by quantifying near-surface soil characteristics. Shear wave velocity as a proxy for sediment shear stiffness informs the likelihood of particle dislocation, contractive or dilative volume changes, and downslope displacement that result from flow-type failures. This broadly available variable common to other hazard predictions, such as liquefaction analysis, provides good coverage in the watersheds of interest for debris flow predictions. A logistic regression is used to compare the new variable against currently used variables for predictive post-fire debris flow triggering models. We find that the new variable produces slightly improved performance in prediction of triggering while better capturing the physics of flow-type failure. Additional suggestions are presented for utilizing statistical cross-validation methods to advance prediction performance and the utility of different variables for quick assessment of likelihood during post-fire rainfall events.

Suggested Citation

  • R. E. S. Moss & N. Lyman, 2022. "Incorporating shear stiffness into post-fire debris flow statistical triggering models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 913-932, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05330-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05330-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Priscilla Addison & Thomas Oommen, 2020. "Post-fire debris flow modeling analyses: case study of the post-Thomas Fire event in California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 329-343, January.
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