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To assess the impacts of climate change on runoff in Golestan Province, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Esmaeil Silakhori

    (Gorgan University of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources)

  • Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno

    (University of Zabol)

  • Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram

    (Water Resources and Applied Mathematics Research Lab)

  • Ehsan Alvandi

    (Gorgan University of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources)

Abstract

Climate is a complex environment that is evolving primarily as the greenhouse gases increase. Due to the importance of climate change and the impact it can have on water resources, evaluation of the effect of climate change on water sources has been considered in various watersheds on the planet in recent years. The aim of this research is to assess the impacts of climate change on runoff in Golestan Province. This research consists of two parts of climate and hydrology. In the climate change part, daily data of the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and sunny hours of the synoptic station of the Hashemabad of Gorgan and the rain gauge station of the Naharkhoran during the period of 1985–2013 were simulated using LARS-WG6 statistical model. After verifying the model efficiency in simulating the mentioned meteorological parameters in the Ziarat watershed, the data from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from HadGEM2-ES model in two periods of 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 were downscaled by the use of LARS-WG6 model to evaluate the impact of climate change on runoff. In the hydrological part, rainfall and runoff were simulated using the IHACRES hydrological model. After calibration in the 1990–1992 period and validation in 2001, the temperature and rainfall data extracted from the LARS-WG6 model were entered in the IHACRES model and runoff changes caused by climate change were calculated in future period relative to the base period. Based on the estimation of LARS-WG6 model for the future scenarios, the results showed that the minimum and maximum temperature of the Ziarat watershed will increase to the amounts of 1.81 to 4.56 °C. The amount of rainfall also varies from 4.79to 16.38 mm in comparison with the base period. Also, the amount of runoff under three scenarios in three periods has changed from −0.373 to 0.308 m3/s in comparison with the base period. These results can be considered in the long-term development programs in water resources sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Esmaeil Silakhori & Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno & Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram & Ehsan Alvandi, 2022. "To assess the impacts of climate change on runoff in Golestan Province, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 281-300, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05181-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05181-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Zahra Emlaei & Sharareh Pourebrahim & Hamidreza Heidari & Khai Ern Lee, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change as Well as Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Water Yield Services in Haraz Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Kiyoumars Roushangar & Sadegh Abdelzad, 2023. "River Flow Modeling in Semi-Arid and Humid Regions Using an Integrated Method Based on LARS-WG and LSTM Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 3813-3831, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Runoff; IHACRES; LARS-WG6; Ziarat watershed;
    All these keywords.

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