Stability evaluation and potential damage of a giant paleo-landslide deposit at the East Himalayan Tectonic Junction on the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

A large number of paleo-landslide deposits exist in the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Once these deposits are destroyed, the disaster chain will cause huge damage to life and property and have an impact on local geomorphic evolution. Diverse models are applied to analyze different geological problems of paleo-landslide deposits, which can produce the advantages of different models fully, thereby making up for the shortcomings of poor applicability of a single model in a certain type of problem. In this study, the Baimu paleo-landslide deposit located at the North side of Dongjiuqu Bridge of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is taken as the research object to completely analyze the potential damage by combining various technical means and numerical model, aiming to provide certain reference for the design and construction of the project. Firstly, site investigation and terrain interpretation confirm the existence of local deformation and damage. Secondly, the finite element model based on the strength reduction method is used to analyze the stability of the deposit and determine the potential damage area. For the potential damage area, debris avalanche and debris flow as two disaster transformation modes are considered. The discrete element model and shallow flow model are used to simulate the dynamic process of debris avalanche and debris flow under complex terrain, respectively. The results show that potential debris avalanche or debris flow will accumulate at the mouth of the Baimu gully, and there will be no direct threat to the bridge. Finally, the formation and evolution sequence of the deposit is proposed, which plays an important role in analyzing the evolution of local river geomorphology.