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The historical case of Paricutin volcano (Michoacán, México): challenges of simulating lava flows on a gentle slope during a long-lasting eruption

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Becerril

    (Geological Survey of Chile (SERNAGEOMIN)
    Spanish Scientific Research Council (CSIC))

  • Patricia Larrea

    (Universidad de Chile
    Miami University)

  • Sergio Salinas

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Sophie Mossoux

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Dolors Ferrés

    (Escuela Nacional de Ciencias de La Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Elisabeth Widom

    (Miami University)

  • Claus Siebe

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Joan Martí

    (Spanish Scientific Research Council (CSIC))

Abstract

Simulating lava flows on a gentle slope is complex since they can propagate in a wide range of directions. It is an even greater challenge to define lava flow trajectories when an eruption lasts over several years and flows cool down, changing the surrounding topography. In this study, we test Q-LavHA, an open source plug-in that simulates lava flow inundation calculating its probability, and using Paricutin’s eruption (1943–1952) in central Mexico as a case study. We have appropriately calibrated the Q-LavHA plug-in for the Paricutin case study, which provides insights on how to better model lava flows in gentle terrain. From this work, we observe that each phase is characterized by a unique set of parameters requiring a careful calibration and that low-relief topographies require special consideration. Our findings could be useful for real-time hazard evaluation in future volcanic scenarios in the Michoacán–Guanajuato volcanic field and elsewhere, where new monogenetic eruptions similar to Paricutin can be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Becerril & Patricia Larrea & Sergio Salinas & Sophie Mossoux & Dolors Ferrés & Elisabeth Widom & Claus Siebe & Joan Martí, 2021. "The historical case of Paricutin volcano (Michoacán, México): challenges of simulating lava flows on a gentle slope during a long-lasting eruption," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 809-829, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04607-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04607-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Károly Németh & Mohammed Rashad Moufti, 2023. "Lava Flow Hazard and Its Implication in Geopark Development for the Active Harrat Khaybar Intracontinental Monogenetic Volcanic Field, Saudi Arabia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Nerea Martín-Raya & Jaime Díaz-Pacheco & Abel López-Díez & Pedro Dorta Antequera & Amílcar Cabrera, 2023. "A lava flow simulation experience oriented to disaster risk reduction, early warning systems and response during the 2021 volcanic eruption in Cumbre Vieja, La Palma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3331-3351, July.

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