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Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis using spectral element method in northeastern Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Saad Khan

    (Bacha Khan University Charsadda
    University of Twente)

  • Mark Meijde

    (University of Twente)

  • Harald Werff

    (University of Twente)

  • Muhammad Shafique

    (University of Peshawar)

Abstract

Seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study by estimating ground motion for hypothetical earthquakes in the area of Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, with the MT solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The earth’s topography influences seismic waves by scattering and reflecting it, thereby causing spatial variation in seismic response. Using the moment tensor solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, we perform 25 spectral element method (SEM)-based 3D simulations along major faults in the study area. The SEM model incorporates the topography and homogeneous half-space characteristics. Our results show that, beside topography, the relative location of the source with respect to slopes also has an influence on the observed variation in ground shaking amplitudes. By integrating the mean and standard deviation of estimated ground shaking from 25 simulations, we present a seismic hazard map for the study area. The map summarizes the topographic and potential source location effect on seismic-induced ground shaking in the study area. It provides a classification from hazardous to safe in relative terms and can be used as a guide in earthquake preparedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Saad Khan & Mark Meijde & Harald Werff & Muhammad Shafique, 2020. "Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis using spectral element method in northeastern Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2131-2144, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04074-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04074-w
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