IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v103y2020i1d10.1007_s11069-020-03998-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evolution mechanism and driving factors of unconventional emergencies in megacities: an empirical study based on 102 cases in the world

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chao Fan

    (Henan Polytechnic University)

  • An Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Based on the analysis method of emergency mechanism, this paper sorts out the key information of the evolution mechanism of the 102 unconventional emergencies occurred in 38 megacities in the world. By using DEMATEL model to search the main factors driving the evolution of the original events to sub-events and the mutual influence among them, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) During the development of unconventional emergencies in megacities, the evolutional phenomenon of events exists generally and the evolution paths are different obviously. (2) It can be seen that there is an obvious interactive feedback relationship between the emergency handling measures and event evolution in megalopolis. (3) The main department of disposal, the level of early warning and the pre-arranged planning are the most powerful factors determining the evolution of events. The research results have obvious warning significance to improving the ability of emergency management. As such, the paper is not a study of a failure in emergency cases, but rather the theoretical framework of unconventional emergencies evolution that make actions and decisions stand out as meaningful for the actors involved in dealing with situations of high complexity and uncertainty. In the future, it is necessary to study the driving results caused by various factors and explore the internal driving mechanism between the driving factors and the type of sub-events.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Zhou & Chao Fan & An Chen, 2020. "Evolution mechanism and driving factors of unconventional emergencies in megacities: an empirical study based on 102 cases in the world," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 513-530, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03998-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03998-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03998-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-03998-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng-Wu Chen & Chun-Pin Tseng, 2012. "Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk management and control," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 659-671, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin Lu & Song Hu & Yuelin Ren & Kai Kang & Beibei Li, 2022. "Research on Extension Design of Emergency Cold Chain Logistics from the Perspective of Carbon Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wen-Ko Hsu & Wei-Ling Chiang & Cheng-Wu Chen, 2013. "Earthquake risk assessment and optimal risk management strategies for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 2063-2076, February.
    2. Bogdan POPA & Jenica POPESCU, 2023. "New Approaches to Financial and Bankruptcy Risk," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(25), pages 8-13, November.
    3. Cheng-Wu Chen & Kevin Liu & Chun-Pin Tseng & Wen-Ko Hsu & Wei-Ling Chiang, 2012. "Hazard management and risk design by optimal statistical analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1707-1716, November.
    4. Wen-Ko Hsu & Wei-Ling Chiang & Qiang Xue & Dung-Mou Hung & Pei-Chun Huang & Cheng-Wu Chen & Chung-Hung Tsai, 2013. "A probabilistic approach for earthquake risk assessment based on an engineering insurance portfolio," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1559-1571, February.
    5. Xiao-ling Yang & Jie-hua Ding & Hui Hou, 2013. "Application of a triangular fuzzy AHP approach for flood risk evaluation and response measures analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 657-674, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03998-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.