IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v102y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-03970-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

Author

Listed:
  • Makenzie J. Krocak

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience
    National Weather Center
    National Weather Center)

  • Sean Ernst

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Jinan N. Allan

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Wesley Wehde

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Joseph T. Ripberger

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Carol L. Silva

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Hank C. Jenkins-Smith

    (University of Oklahoma
    National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

Abstract

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

Suggested Citation

  • Makenzie J. Krocak & Sean Ernst & Jinan N. Allan & Wesley Wehde & Joseph T. Ripberger & Carol L. Silva & Hank C. Jenkins-Smith, 2020. "Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1351-1368, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03970-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ihnji Jon & Shih‐Kai Huang & Michael K. Lindell, 2019. "Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 274-290, January.
    2. Wesley Wehde & Jason M. Pudlo & Scott E. Robinson, 2019. "“Is There Anybody Out There?”: Communication of Natural Hazard Warnings at Home and Away," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 100(7), pages 2607-2624, December.
    3. Michael Lindell & Shih-Kai Huang & Hung-Lung Wei & Charles Samuelson, 2016. "Perceptions and expected immediate reactions to tornado warning polygons," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 683-707, January.
    4. Joseph T. Ripberger & Carol L. Silva & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith & Deven E. Carlson & Mark James & Kerry G. Herron, 2015. "False Alarms and Missed Events: The Impact and Origins of Perceived Inaccuracy in Tornado Warning Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 44-56, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ihnji Jon & Shih‐Kai Huang & Michael K. Lindell, 2019. "Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 274-290, January.
    2. Ming Zhong & Lu Xiao & Qian Zhang & Tao Jiang, 2021. "Risk Perception, Risk Communication, and Mitigation Actions of Flash Floods: Results from a Survey in Three Types of Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Nikolaos Argyris & Valentina Ferretti & Simon French & Seth Guikema & Gilberto Montibeller, 2019. "Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 1-8, January.
    4. Patricia de Oliveira Melo & Renata Marques Britto & Tharcisio Cotta Fontainha & Adriana Leiras & Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, 2017. "Evaluation of community leaders’ perception regarding Alerta Rio, the warning system for landslides caused by heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1343-1368, December.
    5. Ronald L. Schumann & Kevin D. Ash & Gregg C. Bowser, 2018. "Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 311-332, February.
    6. Saed Alizamir & Francis de Véricourt & Shouqiang Wang, 2020. "Warning Against Recurring Risks: An Information Design Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4612-4629, October.
    7. Peng Cheng & Jiuchang Wei & Yue Ge, 2017. "Who should be blamed? The attribution of responsibility for a city smog event in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 669-689, January.
    8. Seyed M. Miran & Chen Ling & Alan Gerard & Lans Rothfusz, 2018. "The effect of providing probabilistic information about a tornado threat on people’s protective actions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 743-758, November.
    9. Eunbin Chung & Inbok Rhee, 2022. "Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 58-72, January.
    10. Mengtian Zhao & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2019. "Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 535-552, March.
    11. Joseph T. Ripberger & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith & Carol L. Silva & Jeffrey Czajkowski & Howard Kunreuther & Kevin M. Simmons, 2018. "Tornado Damage Mitigation: Homeowner Support for Enhanced Building Codes in Oklahoma," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2300-2317, November.
    12. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Dapeng Li & Frank A. Drews & Laura K. Siebeneck & Michael K. Lindell, 2017. "Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 601-611, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03970-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.