Metals at the nexus: renewable vs. nuclear energy systems, metal import requirements, and energy security in the European Union

This study examines the compatibility of the EU’s current 2050 clean energy transition plan, aiming to increase the share of renewable power generation to 80%, with mineral and energy security in the EU, acknowledging the interplay between these security aspects when dealing with metal-intensive energy systems. It also explores the potential advantages of an alternative electricity mix that combines the existing renewable generation share with expanded nuclear energy capacity. The results demonstrate that the planned renewable-intensive electricity mix requires substantially higher quantities of metals to increase and sustain electricity production capacity than the alternative nuclear-intensive system. This is not only the case in terms of volume requirements, which is already evident from the existing literature, but also in terms of value and import requirements. Further, our results reveal that the bottleneck risks in the planned renewable-intensive system are primarily associated with insufficient mining of essential metals inside the EU. In contrast, the bottleneck risks in the nuclear-intensive system are primarily associated with lack of processing inside the EU. Based on the assumption that acquiring relevant mineral reserves and mining capabilities may be more challenging than acquiring new processing capacities, this suggests that the planned renewable-intensive system may come with more serious bottleneck risks than an alternative nuclear-intensive system. Overall, this study leads to the conclusion that a nuclear-intensive electricity mix could offer greater metal-related energy security than the planned renewable-intensive system.