Contemporaneous causality among regional steel price indices of east, south, north, central south, northeast, southwest, and northwest China

In this study, we aim at investigating dynamic relations among steel price indices of all seven regional markets in China, spanning the period of 2010M1–2021M4. With daily data, we apply techniques of vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph to analyze the issue of contemporaneous causality among the seven indices, the latter of which is facilitated through the LiNGAM algorithm. We find via vector error correction modeling that each of the seven indices is part of cointegration relations and responses to long-run equilibrium disturbances. We arrive at causal paths via the LiNGAM algorithm for enabling innovation accounting analysis. With this analysis, we find sophisticated dynamics in price adjustment processes following shocks, for which east and northeast regions have the most significant impacts on other regions, followed by south and north regions, followed by the southwest region. Central south and northwest regions are not found to have significant impacts on others. These results suggest that policies on regional steel prices in the long run might be designed with most attention paid to five of the seven regions, particularly east and northeast regions.