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Climate change risk assessment for adaptation planning in Indian agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • C. A. R. Rao

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • B. M. K. Raju

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • A. Islam

    (Indian Council of Agricultural Research)

  • AVMS Rao

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • K. V. Rao

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • R. C. Gajjala

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • N. K. Ramaraju

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • P. Matyam

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • S. R. Kotha

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • S. Bhaskar

    (Indian Council of Agricultural Research)

  • S. K. Chaudhari

    (Indian Council of Agricultural Research)

  • V. K. Singh

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • K. Srinivas

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • M. S. Rao

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • J. Samuel

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • G. Sambasiva

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

  • N. Swapna

    (CRIDA: Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture)

Abstract

Considering the importance of identifying hotspots of climate change risk and vulnerability for adaptation planning, this paper conducted a district level climate change risk and vulnerability assessment for India as per the framework suggested by the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. Climate change risk was assessed in terms of an aggregated index of exposure, vulnerability and hazard that were constructed by aggregating relevant indicators. Climate change projections obtained using CMIP-5 climate models for the scenario RCP 4.5 for the period 2020–49 were used to represent hazard. The study categorized 193 districts into ‘very high’ or ‘high’ vulnerability many of which are in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, etc. One hundred and nine districts categorized as ‘very high’ risk are in the states of Bihar, Kerala, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, etc. and those categorized as ‘high’ risk districts are in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, etc. Adaptation planning and implementation may prioritize these districts with relatively higher risk and vulnerability and identify adaptation strategies based on the drivers of risk and vulnerability identified.

Suggested Citation

  • C. A. R. Rao & B. M. K. Raju & A. Islam & AVMS Rao & K. V. Rao & R. C. Gajjala & N. K. Ramaraju & P. Matyam & S. R. Kotha & S. Bhaskar & S. K. Chaudhari & V. K. Singh & K. Srinivas & M. S. Rao & J. Sa, 2025. "Climate change risk assessment for adaptation planning in Indian agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 1-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:30:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11027-025-10208-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-025-10208-x
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