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Implications of uncertainty and scale in carbon emission estimates on locally appropriate designs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)

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  • Betha Lusiana
  • Meine Noordwijk
  • Feri Johana
  • Gamma Galudra
  • S. Suyanto
  • Georg Cadisch

Abstract

This study combined uncertainty analysis of carbon emissions with local stakeholders' perspectives to develop an effective Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) scheme at the district level. Uncertainty of carbon emission estimates depends on scale while local stakeholders' views on plausible REDD+ schemes influence and limit transaction costs. The uncertainty analysis formed the basis for determining an appropriate scale for monitoring carbon emission estimates as performance measures for REDD+ incentives. Our analysis of stakeholder’ perspectives explored (i) potential location and activities for lower emission development pathways, and (ii) perceived fair allocation of REDD+incentives. Our case study focused on frontier forest in Tanjung Jabung Barat District, Jambi, Indonesia. The uncertainty analysis used Monte Carlo simulation techniques using known inaccuracy of land cover classification and variation in carbon stocks assessment per land cover type. With decreasing spatial resolution of carbon emission maps, uncertainty in carbon estimates decreased. At 1 km 2 resolution uncertainty dropped below 5 %, retaining most of the coarser spatial variation in the district. Fairness, efficiency and transaction cost issues in the design of REDD+ mechanisms were readily recognized by local stakeholders, who converged on an equal allocation to short-term efficiency (emission reduction activities) and long-term fairness (alternative livelihood development). A striking difference occurred in desirable transaction costs (which include monitoring, reporting and verification), with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) aiming for 8 %, while government and researchers accepted transaction costs of 40 %. Feasible measures for emission reduction in the district, derived from a participatory planning process, are compatible with the 1 km 2 spatial resolution of performance measures. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Betha Lusiana & Meine Noordwijk & Feri Johana & Gamma Galudra & S. Suyanto & Georg Cadisch, 2014. "Implications of uncertainty and scale in carbon emission estimates on locally appropriate designs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 757-772, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:6:p:757-772
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9501-z
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    1. Till Neeff, 2021. "What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Jichuan Sheng & Weihai Zhou & Alex De Sherbinin, 2018. "Uncertainty in Estimates, Incentives, and Emission Reductions in REDD+ Projects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Ermias Aynekulu & Marta Suber & Meine van Noordwijk & Jacobo Arango & James M. Roshetko & Todd S. Rosenstock, 2020. "Carbon Storage Potential of Silvopastoral Systems of Colombia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-12, September.
    4. Haurez, Barbara & Daïnou, Kasso & Vermeulen, Cédric & Kleinschroth, Fritz & Mortier, Frédéric & Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie & Doucet, Jean-Louis, 2017. "A look at Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) and their relevance in Central African forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 192-199.
    5. Jichuan Sheng, 2017. "Effect of Uncertainties in Estimated Carbon Reduction from Deforestation and Forest Degradation on Required Incentive Payments in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Robin Matthews & Meine Noordwijk & Eric Lambin & Patrick Meyfroidt & Joyeeta Gupta & Louis Verchot & Kristell Hergoualc’h & Edzo Veldkamp, 2014. "Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance, evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 907-925, August.

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