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From curse to blessing: a fourier-augmented ARDL analysis of agriculture, geopolitics, and trade in south and central Asia

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  • Sidra Nazir

    (Ural Federal University
    Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS))

Abstract

This study introduces a novel fourier-augmented ARDL approach to explore how agricultural commodity prices and geopolitical risk affect trade integration in South and Central Asia, re-examining conventional views on the resource curse and international trade. Findings shows that in the long-run, these factors contribute to a resource curse in South Asia by hindering trade integration, while in Central Asia, they promote trade integration, indicating a resource blessing. Additionally, short-run commodity price volatility triggers a resource curse in both regions. These insights suggest strategies for policymakers to counteract geopolitical risks and optimize natural resource use, potentially transforming the “curse” into a “blessing” for the economic future of these Asian regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sidra Nazir, 2024. "From curse to blessing: a fourier-augmented ARDL analysis of agriculture, geopolitics, and trade in south and central Asia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lsprsc:v:17:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s12076-024-00384-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s12076-024-00384-w
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    Keywords

    Resource curse; Agriculture commodity; Geopolitical risk; Trade integration; Fourier-augmented ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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