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Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte Fofack

    (African Export-Import Bank)

  • Richman Dzene

    (African Export-Import Bank)

  • Omar A. Mohsen Hussein

    (African Export-Import Bank)

Abstract

This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 24% in the short term and slightly more in the long run. However, the potential trade and welfare gains associated with the continental trade integration reform are expected to vary across countries, with the largest gains accruing to countries that exhibit relatively low intra-regional trade performance and level of integration pre-AfCFTA.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Fofack & Richman Dzene & Omar A. Mohsen Hussein, 2021. "Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 62-76, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jouafr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:d:10.2991_jat.k.211122.001
    DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.211122.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AfCFTA; GEPPML; International trade agreements; CGE; MRT; RTA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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