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Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of real estate launch prices

Author

Listed:
  • Vitor Dias Rocio

    (FEARP University of São Paulo)

  • Márcio Poletti Laurini

    (FEARP University of São Paulo)

Abstract

In this study, we utilize Bayesian methods to construct a comprehensive spatio-temporal model for real estate launch prices in the city of São Paulo. Our approach involves the decomposition of the price series into trend and cycle components, as well as the inclusion of spatially continuous and time-varying random effects. Additionally, we incorporate a set of explanatory variables to account for hedonic aspects. Within the hedonic components, we not only consider intrinsic property characteristics but also take into consideration neighborhood features and the economic environment. With the application of this model, we have successfully estimated equilibrium prices for various locations, offering a more transparent interpretation of property price dynamics spanning from January 2000 to December 2013 within São Paulo city.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitor Dias Rocio & Márcio Poletti Laurini, 2023. "Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of real estate launch prices," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-47, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jospat:v:4:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s43071-023-00044-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s43071-023-00044-z
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Property prices; Spatio-temporal modeling; Bayesian methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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