A spatial econometric analysis of tourism demand of foreign visitors to japan: regional nature and culture connected to tourism development

The purpose of this study is to discuss the factors determining the number of foreign tourists who visit each prefecture in Japan focusing on local governments’ policies that effectively promote tourism with natural and cultural resources. In analyzing this subject, this study extends the traditional Gunn’s model that describes tourism attractiveness, considering the influence of the surroundings on natural parks and historical sites and spatial interactions in foreign tourism flows among prefectures. The results obtained from analyzing the panel data of 47 prefectures in Japan for the period from 2007 to 2014 with spatial econometric models show the following findings. First, there exist spatial autocorrelations in foreign tourist flows among prefectures in Japan, which suggests an effectiveness of joint promotion of tourism between prefectures. Second, the impacts of natural parks on foreign tourist flows in each prefecture are enhanced by the increase in accommodation and the restriction of infrastructure development. Third, the impacts of historical sites on the number of foreign tourists are increased by both the improvement in railway infrastructure and the increase in government expenditure for tourism. Fourth, there exist spillover effects for railway development and a reduction in criminal offences between the foreign tourist flows of each prefecture and a competitive relationship for accommodation between them.