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Empirical analysis of the differences in the drivers of fertility between CEE countries and the rest of the EU

Author

Listed:
  • András Olivér Németh

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Petra Németh

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • László Tőkés

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

Our research aims to reveal the key social, economic, and other factors behind the common fertility trends of the CEE countries compared to the rest of Europe over the past decades. A panel analysis was conducted to examine the main (social and economic) determinants of the total fertility rate using the fixed-effect method. The study employs macro-level data from the 27 countries of the European Union with special attention to the 11 CEE countries; the analysed period lasts from 1990 to 2021. The results demonstrate that fertility in the CEE countries is significantly more sensitive to changes in the economic situation, and demographic and social variables related to childbirth have a more pronounced effect on the TFR. In contrast, variables related to the ageing of society seem to be less decisive. Our main academic contribution is to extend the empirical literature on fertility rates in Central and Eastern Europe. There are indeed differences in the determinants of the TFR in Central and Eastern Europe compared to the rest of Europe over the past decades, which allows policymakers to respond more efficiently to changes in the fertility patterns of the region.

Suggested Citation

  • András Olivér Németh & Petra Németh & László Tőkés, 2025. "Empirical analysis of the differences in the drivers of fertility between CEE countries and the rest of the EU," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:42:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-025-09366-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-025-09366-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; TFR; Central and Eastern European countries; Demographic economics; Socio-economic uncertainty; Panel data methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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