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Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Author

Listed:
  • George Hondroyiannis

    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece, and Harokopio University)

  • Evangelia Papapetrou

    (University of Athens, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece and Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960-96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.

Suggested Citation

  • George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 221-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:15:y:2002:i:2:p:221-242
    Note: Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Abdulaziz A. Bawazir & Mohamed Aslam & Ahmad Farid Bin Osman, 2020. "Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 429-450, August.
    2. Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age‐Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
    3. Joyce Jacobsen & Melanie Khamis & Mutlu Yuksel, 2024. "Demography, Human Capital Investment, and Lifetime Earnings for Women and Men," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, June.
    4. Daniel Mejía & María Teresa Ramírez & Jorge Tamayo, 2008. "The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 5128, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
    6. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    7. Čobanović, Katarina & Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija & Mutavdžić, Beba, 2007. "Relation of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors in Rural Development of Serbia," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162339, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Panagiotis PEGKAS & Constantinos TSAMADIAS, 2015. "Does Formal Education At All Levels Cause Economic Growth? Evidence From Greece," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 9-32, June.
    9. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    10. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografía y crecimiento económico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    12. Kostas Rontos & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Mattia Gianvincenzi & Simona Moretti & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
    14. Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2011. "Demographic transition and economic growth in Romania," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 20(2), pages 103-112.
    15. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2018. "Determinants Of Female Fertility In Asean-5: Empirical Evidence From Bounds Cointegration Test," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 593-618, June.
    16. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Demographic Dynamics, Urban Cycles and Economic Downturns: A Long-term Investigation of a Metropolitan Region in Europe, 1956–2016," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 549-575, June.
    17. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    18. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Peng, Xiujian, 2007. "Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 263-278, March.
    19. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    20. Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "Economic and Demographic Interactions in Post World War France: A Gendered Approach," Working Papers 10-16, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    21. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility · infant mortality · VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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