IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jopoec/v12y1999i3p463-487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abul M. M. Masih

    (School of Finance and Business Economics, Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup Campus, Perth WA 6027, Australia (e-mail: a.masih@cowan.edu.au; Fax: +)

  • Rumi Masih

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, England)

Abstract

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1999. "Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction mode," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 463-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487
    Note: Received: 7 April 1995/Accepted: 15 May 1998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00148/papers/9012003/90120463.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
    2. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Peng, Xiujian, 2007. "Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 263-278, March.
    5. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista, 2017. "Analysis of the efficiency–integration nexus of Japanese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 296-308.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility · vector error-correction model · variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.