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Nonlinear Stochastic Effects of Substitution--An Evolutionary Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bruckner, E
  • Ebeling, W
  • Jimenez Montano, M.A.
  • Scharnhorst, A.

Abstract

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well-known research traditions on self-organization models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature, we show the existence of a specific niche effect which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result, we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome. Coauthors are W. Ebeling, M. A. Jimenez Montano, and A. Scharnhorst.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruckner, E & Ebeling, W & Jimenez Montano, M.A. & Scharnhorst, A., 1996. "Nonlinear Stochastic Effects of Substitution--An Evolutionary Approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:1-30
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vanessa Oltra, 2008. "Environmental innovation and industrial dynamics: the contributions of evolutionary economics," Post-Print hal-00391493, HAL.
    2. Barbieri, Nicolò, 2016. "Fuel prices and the invention crowding out effect: Releasing the automotive industry from its dependence on fossil fuel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 222-234.
    3. Bruckner, Eberhard, 2003. "Überlebenschancen neu gegründeter Firmen: Ein evolutionstheoretischer Zugang," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Civil Society and Transnational Networks SP IV 2003-105, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Nicolò Barbieri, 2015. "Environmental policy and invention crowding out. Unlocking the automotive industry from fossil fuel path dependence," SEEDS Working Papers 0615, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Mar 2015.
    5. Zhang, Yanfang & Mei, Shue & Zhong, Weijun, 2011. "Stochastic evolutionary selection in finite populations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2743-2747.
    6. M. Laura Frigotto & Massimo Riccaboni, 2011. "A few special cases: scientific creativity and network dynamics in the field of rare diseases," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 397-420, October.
    7. Silverberg, Gerald, 1997. "Evolutionary modeling in economics : recent history and immediate prospects," Research Memorandum 008, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Roland Kupers, 2013. "Threshold models of technological transitions," Working Papers 13-06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Aug 2013.
    9. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    10. Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
    11. Sun Hi Yoo & DongKyu Won, 2018. "Simulation of Weak Signals of Nanotechnology Innovation in Complex System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, February.
    12. Steinhilber, Simone & Wells, Peter & Thankappan, Samarthia, 2013. "Socio-technical inertia: Understanding the barriers to electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-539.
    13. Sengupta, Jati K., 2003. "Stochastic Growth In Schumpeterian Dynamics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v13p7kx, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    14. Shidong Wang & Renaud Foucart & Cheng Wan, 2014. "Comeback kids: an evolutionary approach of the long-run innovation process," Papers 1411.2167, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.

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