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Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market

Author

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  • Ralf Ahrens
  • Stefan Reitz

Abstract

In this study a regime-switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The c&f model is tested against alternative regime-switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested atheoretical models like the popular segmented trends model suggested by Engel and Hamilton (1990) are rejected in favour of the multi-agent model. Our findings turned out to be relatively robust when assessing the models’ sub-sample estimates and out-of-sample performance. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Ahrens & Stefan Reitz, 2004. "Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:65-82
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    2. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    3. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    4. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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