IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joecth/v79y2025i2d10.1007_s00199-024-01598-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Central bank communication and stabilization policies under firms’ motivated beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Camille Cornand

    (CNRS, GATE UMR 5824)

  • Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira

    (BETA, University of Strasbourg
    Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

Using a simple microfounded macroeconomic model with price making firms and a central bank maximizing the welfare of a representative household, we show that the presence of firms’ motivated beliefs has stark consequences for central banks’ optimal communication and stabilization policies. Under pure communication, motivated beliefs overweighting the accuracy of firms’ private information may reverse the bang-bang solution of transparency found in the literature under objective beliefs and lead to intermediate levels of communication. Similarly, when communication and stabilization policies are combined, motivated beliefs overweighting firms’ ability to process idiosyncratic information in general may reverse the bang-bang solution of opacity applying under objective beliefs, leading again to intermediate levels of communication and stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2025. "Central bank communication and stabilization policies under firms’ motivated beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 687-721, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:79:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-024-01598-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-024-01598-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00199-024-01598-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00199-024-01598-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
    2. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    4. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2020. "Observing and Shaping the Market: The Dilemma of Central Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 1973-2005, December.
    5. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2014. "Reducing Overreaction To Central Banks' Disclosures: Theory And Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1087-1126, August.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    7. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    8. Kenza Benhima & Isabella Blengini, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 956-975.
    9. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
    10. Jonathan G. James & Phillip Lawler, 2011. "Optimal Policy Intervention and the Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1561-1574, June.
    11. Ryan Chahrour & Robert Ulbricht, 2023. "Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 173-208, January.
    12. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
    13. Luca Colombo & Gianluca Femminis & Alessandro Pavan, 2014. "Information Acquisition and Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1438-1483.
    14. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Gollier, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 159-165, May.
    15. David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2012. "Endogenous Information Acquisition in Coordination Games," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(1), pages 340-374.
    16. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La’O, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1027-1064.
    17. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 223-251.
    18. Guido Lorenzoni, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Fundamentals and Dispersed Information ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 305-338.
    19. Femminis, Gianluca & Piccirilli, Giulio, 2023. "Optimal policy with dispersed information and uncertain monetary transmission," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    21. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Myatt, David P. & Wallace, Chris, 2014. "Central bank communication design in a Lucas-Phelps economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2021. "Central bank’s stabilization and communication policies when firms have motivated overconfidence in their own information accuracy or processing," Working Papers 2118, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2020. "Observing and Shaping the Market: The Dilemma of Central Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 1973-2005, December.
    3. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    4. Arato, Hiroki & Hori, Takeo & Nakamura, Tomoya, 2021. "Endogenous information acquisition and the partial announcement policy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Jonathan G. James & Philip Lawler, 2024. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication and the Social Value of Public Information," Working Papers 2024-03, Swansea University, School of Management.
    6. Angeletos, George-Marios & Iovino, Luigi & La'O, Jennifer, 2020. "Learning over the business cycle: Policy implications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Takashi Ui, 2022. "Optimal and Robust Disclosure of Public Information," Papers 2203.16809, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    8. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 260, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2016. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing multiplier effects into a generalized beauty contest," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 260 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Baeriswyl, Romain & Boun My, Kene & Cornand, Camille, 2021. "Double overreaction in beauty contests with information acquisition: Theory and experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 432-445.
    11. Iovino, Luigi & La’O, Jennifer & Mascarenhas, Rui, 2022. "Optimal monetary policy and disclosure with an informationally-constrained central banker," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 151-172.
    12. Stephanie L. Chan, 2021. "The Social Value of Public Information When Not Everyone is Privately Informed," Working Papers 2021-09-18, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    13. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," HWWI Research Papers 169, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    14. Takashi Ui, 2022. "Optimal and Robust Disclosure of Public Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 039, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Galperti, Simone & Trevino, Isabel, 2020. "Coordination motives and competition for attention in information markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Hellwig, Christian & Venkateswaran, Venky, 2024. "Dispersed Information, Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Business Cycles: A Hayekian Perspective," TSE Working Papers 24-1594, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Adams, Jonathan J., 2023. "Moderating noise-driven macroeconomic fluctuations under dispersed information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Ui, Takashi & 宇井, 貴志, 2014. "The Social Value of Public Information with Convex Costs of Information Acquisition," Discussion Papers 2014-05, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach," NBER Working Papers 15883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ui, Takashi & Yoshizawa, Yasunori, 2015. "Characterizing social value of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 507-535.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Motivated beliefs; Public and private information (accuracy); Overconfidence; Communication policy; Stabilization policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:79:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-024-01598-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.