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Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model

Author

Listed:
  • Natali Hritonenko

    (Prairie View A&M University)

  • Yuri Yatsenko

    (Houston Baptist University)

Abstract

We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.

Suggested Citation

  • Natali Hritonenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2024. "Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 235-259, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:77:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00199-022-01469-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7
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    Keywords

    Optimal lockdown; Epidemic control; Cost minimization; Volterra integral equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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