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Asset pricing under smooth ambiguity in continuous time

Author

Listed:
  • Lars Peter Hansen

    (University of Chicago)

  • Jianjun Miao

    (Boston University)

Abstract

We study asset pricing implications of a revealing and tractable formulation of smooth ambiguity investor preferences in a continuous-time environment. Investors do not observe a hidden Markov state and instead make inferences about this state using past data. We show that ambiguity about this hidden state distribution alters investor decisions and equilibrium asset prices. Our continuous-time formulation allows us to apply recursive filtering and Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman methods to solve the modified decision problem. Using such methods, we show how characterizations of portfolio allocations and local uncertainty-return tradeoffs change when investors are ambiguity-averse.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Peter Hansen & Jianjun Miao, 2022. "Asset pricing under smooth ambiguity in continuous time," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 335-371, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:74:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-022-01441-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-022-01441-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2024. "Uncertainty and climate change: The IPCC approach vs decision theory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Jin, Yurong & Yan, Jingzhou & Yan, Qianhui, 2024. "Unraveling ESG Ambiguity, Price Reaction, and Trading Volume," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Luo, Deqing & Shan, Xun & Yan, Jingzhou & Yan, Qianhui, 2023. "Sustainable investment under ESG volatility and ambiguity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Jianjun Miao, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue in honor of Larry Epstein," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 329-333, September.
    5. Arnon Archankul & Giorgio Ferrari & Tobias Hellmann & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2023. "Singular Control in a Cash Management Model with Ambiguity," Papers 2309.12014, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Ambiguity; Robustness; Asset pricing; Portfolio allocation; Continuous time;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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