IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v45y2021i1d10.1007_s12197-020-09533-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic linkages between US and Eurodollar interest rates: new evidence from causality in quantiles

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth A. Tah

    (Mercer University)

  • Geoffrey Ngene

    (Mercer University)

Abstract

Global markets have become more integrated, making co-movements of international interest rates possible. In this paper, we investigate the causal linkage between US and Eurodollar (London) interest rate using the Granger causality test in quantiles. This permits us to examine causality over interest rate distributions not covered by the usual causality test. We therefore test causality in different quantile ranges. A common attribute with previous studies that investigate the causal linkages among interest rates across international money markets is the assumption that the causal relations between international interest rate changes are constant across different interest rate levels. In this study, we allow for asymmetric quantile causal effects. Our empirical results suggest a quantile causal effect between US interest rate and Eurodollar interest rate. US interest rate Granger cause Eurodollar interest rate. The effect is positive at lower quantiles and negative at upper quantiles. On the other hand, Eurodollar interest rate Granger cause US interest rate, but the effect is negative at the lower quantile and positive at the upper quantile. The estimated causality coefficients at both the lower and the higher quantiles are significantly different from the median coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Tah & Geoffrey Ngene, 2021. "Dynamic linkages between US and Eurodollar interest rates: new evidence from causality in quantiles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 200-210, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:45:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-020-09533-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-020-09533-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-020-09533-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-020-09533-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swanson, Peggy E., 1987. "Capital market integration over the past decade: The case of the US dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 215-225, June.
    2. Kwack, Sung Y, 1971. "The Structure of International Interest Rates: An Extension of Hendershott's Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 897-900, September.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:1:p:127-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    6. Richard Ajayi & Apostolos Serletis, 2009. "Testing for causality in the transmission of Eurodollar and US interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 439-443.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    8. Helge Bremnes & Oystein Gjerde & Frode Sattem, 2001. "Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-145, March.
    9. Turan Bali, 2007. "Modeling the dynamics of interest rate volatility with skewed fat-tailed distributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 151-178, April.
    10. Mehdi Monadjemi, 1998. "Are real interest rates cointegrated? A study of three OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 681-683.
    11. Jian Yang & Jaeun Shin & Moosa Khan, 2007. "Causal linkages between US and Eurodollar interest rates: further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 135-144.
    12. Wai-Chung Lo & Hung-Gay Fung & Morse, Joel N., 1995. "A note on Euroyen and domestic yen interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1309-1321, October.
    13. Mougoue, Mbodja & Wagster, John, 1997. "The Causality Effects of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy on U.S. and Eurodollar Interest Rates," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 821-844, November.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    15. Patric H. Hendershott, 1967. "The Structure Of International Interest Rates: The U.S. Treasury Bill Rate And The Eurodollar Deposit Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 455-465, September.
    16. Fung, Hung-Gay & Isberg, Steven C., 1992. "The international transmission of eurodollar and US interest rates: A cointegration analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 757-769, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongcheng Ding & Xuanze Zhao & Zixiao Jiang & Shamsul Nahar Abdullah & Deshinta Arrova Dewi, 2024. "EUR-USD Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on Information Fusion with Large Language Models and Deep Learning Methods," Papers 2408.13214, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongqi Feng & Tianshu Zhang, 2016. "Interest Rate Linkages between Offshore and Onshore Renminbi Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 434-450, December.
    2. Clinebell, John M. & Kahl, Douglas R. & Stevens, Jerry L., 2000. "Integration of LIBOR and Treasury bill yields over different monetary regimes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 17-30.
    3. Jian Yang & Jaeun Shin & Moosa Khan, 2007. "Causal linkages between US and Eurodollar interest rates: further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 135-144.
    4. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1997. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of interest rates in the Eurocurrency market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 767-778, September.
    5. Tan Hock Ann, Albert & Alles, Lakshman, 2000. "An examination of causality and predictability between Australian domestic and offshore interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 83-106, January.
    6. Yiuman Tse & G. Booth, 1995. "The relationship between U.S. and eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 28-46, March.
    7. Jian Yang, 2006. "Information transmission between Eurocurrency and domestic interest rates: evidence from the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 675-685.
    8. Fung, Hung-Gay & Jang, Hoyoon & Lee, Wai, 1997. "International interest rate transmission and volatility spillover," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 67-75.
    9. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bruce G. Resnick & Gary L. Shoesmith, 2011. "Information Transmission in the World Money Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 183-200, January.
    11. Lee, Young-Sook, 2003. "The Federal funds market and the overnight Eurodollar market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 749-771, April.
    12. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.
    13. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    14. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:dingfan is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas, 2019. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic relations in energy markets: (De)tails matter," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Hong Cheng & Yunqing Wang & Yihong Wang & Tinggan Yang, 2022. "Inferring Causal Interactions in Financial Markets Using Conditional Granger Causality Based on Quantile Regression," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 719-748, February.
    17. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay & Thiewes, Harold F., 2002. "International linkage of interest rates: Evidence from the emerging economies of Asia," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-235.
    18. Swanson, Peggy E., 2003. "The interrelatedness of global equity markets, money markets, and foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 135-155.
    19. Wai-Chung Lo & Hung-Gay Fung & Morse, Joel N., 1995. "A note on Euroyen and domestic yen interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1309-1321, October.
    20. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    21. Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2016. "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 74336, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US interest rate; Eurodollar interest rate; Quantile regression; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:45:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-020-09533-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.