Post-processing Multiensemble Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Through an Exchangeable Normal-Gamma Model and Its Tobit Extension
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s13253-019-00358-2
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Marie Courbariaux & Pierre Barbillon & Éric Parent, 2017. "Water flow probabilistic predictions based on a rainfall–runoff simulator: a two-regime model with variable selection," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 22(2), pages 194-219, June.
- Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388, April.
- Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Michaël Zamo & Liliane Bel & Olivier Mestre, 2021. "Sequential aggregation of probabilistic forecasts—Application to wind speed ensemble forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 202-225, January.
- Pierre-Julien Trombe & Pierre Pinson & Henrik Madsen, 2012. "A General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-37, March.
- Reto Stauffer & Jakob W. Messner & Georg J. Mayr & Nikolaus Umlauf & Achim Zeileis, 2016. "Ensemble Post-Processing of Daily Precipitation Sums over Complex Terrain Using Censored High-Resolution Standardized Anomalies," Working Papers 2016-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Sebastian Lerch & Sándor Baran, 2017. "Similarity-based semilocal estimation of post-processing models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 29-51, January.
- Baran, Sándor & Lerch, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 477-496.
- Alonzo, Bastien & Tankov, Peter & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal, 2020. "Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 515-530.
- Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2021. "Decision making with dynamic probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2106.16047, arXiv.org.
- Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Grose, Simone D., 2012.
"Probabilistic forecasts of volatility and its risk premia,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 217-236.
- Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes & Simone Grose, 2010. "Probabilistic Forecasts of Volatility and its Risk Premia," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013.
"Forecasting Binary Outcomes,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106,
Elsevier.
- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018.
"Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting,"
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
- Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Tilmann Gneiting & Larissa Stanberry & Eric Grimit & Leonhard Held & Nicholas Johnson, 2008. "Rejoinder on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(2), pages 256-264, August.
- Daniel Cervone & Alex D’Amour & Luke Bornn & Kirk Goldsberry, 2016. "A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 585-599, April.
- Bijak Jakub & Alberts Isabel & Alho Juha & Bryant John & Buettner Thomas & Falkingham Jane & Forster Jonathan J. & Gerland Patrick & King Thomas & Onorante Luca & Keilman Nico & O’Hagan Anthony & Owen, 2015. "Letter to the Editor," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 537-544, December.
- Sigrist, Fabio & Leuenberger, Nicola, 2023. "Machine learning for corporate default risk: Multi-period prediction, frailty correlation, loan portfolios, and tail probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1390-1406.
- Wen, Honglin & Pinson, Pierre & Gu, Jie & Jin, Zhijian, 2024. "Wind energy forecasting with missing values within a fully conditional specification framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-95.
- Mike Ludkovski & Glen Swindle & Eric Grannan, 2022. "Large Scale Probabilistic Simulation of Renewables Production," Papers 2205.04736, arXiv.org.
- Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021.
"Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area," Working papers 733, Banque de France.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011.
"Optimal prediction pools,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series 22_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank.
- Daniel Ambach & Robert Garthoff, 2016. "Vorhersagen der Windgeschwindigkeit und Windenergie in Deutschland," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(1), pages 15-36, February.
- Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
More about this item
Keywords
Hierarchical latent variable models; EM algorithms; Ensemble numerical weather prediction; Statistical post-processing; Temperature; Precipitation;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:24:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s13253-019-00358-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.